Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 1.793110 1.865571 1.941154 2.026211 2.119680 2.219751 2.335650
2025-04-13 1.671583 1.771979 1.881147 2.009843 2.159018 2.328607 2.539233
2025-04-20 1.615332 1.734129 1.867057 2.029076 2.224563 2.457633 2.764729
2025-04-27 1.585691 1.720758 1.875684 2.070231 2.313871 2.618104 3.044169
2025-05-04 1.541690 1.686119 1.854823 2.071475 2.350763 2.712810 3.246969
2025-05-11 1.504315 1.656235 1.836487 2.072583 2.384995 2.804404 3.455716
2025-05-18 1.454894 1.608899 1.793545 2.038653 2.368912 2.823478 3.556794
2025-05-25 1.423075 1.581310 1.773217 2.031792 2.387432 2.891359 3.742727
2025-06-01 1.393008 1.554369 1.752037 2.021909 2.400015 2.950354 3.922482
2025-06-08 1.364365 1.527936 1.730069 2.009273 2.407015 3.000426 4.094410
2025-06-15 1.349319 1.517842 1.728362 2.023433 2.452796 3.114492 4.408186
2025-06-22 1.309100 1.474443 1.681620 1.973214 2.400118 3.064311 4.386301
2025-06-29 1.274892 1.438646 1.644787 1.936772 2.368295 3.049708 4.445154
2025-07-06 1.248820 1.412662 1.620147 1.916468 2.359828 3.073874 4.594407
2025-07-13 1.239212 1.407476 1.622693 1.934353 2.410612 3.204677 5.022326
2025-07-20 1.237310 1.412074 1.638277 1.971404 2.493950 3.404822 5.710482
2025-07-27 1.222628 1.399348 1.629732 1.972529 2.519098 3.499629 6.162659
2025-08-03 1.208735 1.387217 1.621490 1.973526 2.543804 3.596625 6.679240
2025-08-10 1.184738 1.361044 1.593043 1.942948 2.513168 3.577517 6.789711
2025-08-17 1.170081 1.347010 1.581052 1.936759 2.523777 3.645575 7.269096
2025-08-24 1.155206 1.332316 1.567681 1.927837 2.528934 3.702607 7.752846
2025-08-31 1.140185 1.317080 1.553103 1.916425 2.528878 3.748134 8.231012
2025-09-07 1.133644 1.313101 1.554206 1.929213 2.572560 3.898939 9.426032